March Madness Tips
NCAA March Madness is one of the best times of the year for
college basketball fans to bet on their favorite teams.
However, if you are a basketball fan who is new to betting
during NCAA March Madness, then you may need a few pointers to
help keep you from losing money on bad March Madness picks.
Below are some tips to get you started.
10 Tips for
Making Better Picks
1. Get to know your
teams, learn their strengths and weaknesses, know their home
and road records, and evaluate them objectively. Pay attention
to changes in the quality of a team from one season to the
next as players graduate and changes occur in coaching staffs.
2. Value betting - find low risk high
Successful basketball gambling requires getting value on your
bets ... basically this means getting better than the "true"
odds on your team. For instance, if your objective prediction
for a game suggests that Duke should be receiving 5 points but
are in fact receiving 8, then this is a value betting
proposition. In this case, the risk to reward is very much in
your favor, making Duke a strong play.
3. Bet against public opinion
Certain teams always have a strong public following. For
years, the Chicago Bulls were one such team, having captured
the public's admiration during the Jordan years. High-value
bets can often be found by betting against these teams because
the odds makers adjust the line to reflect the expected amount
of public money ... thus, the underdog is often listed with
better odds or a larger pointspread than they realistically
4. Stay abreast of injuries
injuries, but don't overreact to them. Judge the importance of
an injured player and the quality of his back up. Remember
that second-string players are often highly qualified and are
especially motivated when replacing a starter, so it often
pays to bet on a team missing its best player. The public
normally overreacts to injuries so you may find good value in
this situation. However, beware of situations where there is
more than one injured stud or there is an injury to the team's
captain or inspirational leader.
5. Bet on motivated teams
Sometimes a team doesn't play up to its potential and, at
other times, may play well above what is indicated by their
overall record - especially in critical games. Determine how
important a game is to a team. If the team has already
clinched a playoff spot, they may be more focused on the
post-season than the present game. Conversely, a team facing a
must-win situation to make the playoffs may be highly
motivated. A team out to revenge a defeat earlier in the
season may also be very motivated.
6. Bet with your head, not your heart
Make an honest assessment of a team's chances, not one based
on emotions. Don't bet on a team simply because it's your
favorite without considering the real odds. Be selective and
remember that you will only find value betting situations in a
small number of games. Betting the entire NCAA schedule every
week is a risky proposition at best.
7. Don't chase your losses
When you do run into
the inevitable losing streak, don't panic and make the common
mistake of betting larger amounts in an attempt to recoup your
losses. Instead, examine your handicapping methods and reduce
your betting amounts until you start winning again. Remember -
chasing your losses is the single biggest mistake a gambler
can make. Once you start winning again, increase your bets
slightly, but don't go overboard - unfortunately, like losing
streaks, winning streaks also come to an end.
8. Don't bet just for the sake of
There is no shame in passing up a bet. Remember that there are
sports betting opportunities almost every day of the year.
Don't bet simply for the sake of gambling - be patient and
wait for good value betting opportunities.
9. Practice smart money management
Good money management
is just as important as picking winners. Increase your betting
amount only when showing an overall profit and reduce your
betting amount when you are losing. Try to set a maximum
percentage of your betting capital that will be placed on any
one bet in order to minimize your exposure ... many
professional handicappers suggest that no more than five
percent of your wagering capital be at risk on any one bet, no
matter how strongly you feel about the game.
10. Keep accurate records
Accurate records of your wagering activity are essential
for increasing your winning percentage. For example, do you
tend to bet your home team or your favorite team more than you
should? What are the current trends - are more underdogs
winning early in the season? By maintaining records of
statistics as well as your betting history will help you to
avoid destructive wagering patterns and, at the same time will
enable you to spot trends that may give you an edge.